Expert predictions: what they are certain about
There is a group of relevant influencing factors that the experts predict will have a distinct evolution and also a significant impact on the future of TV and video.
Digitalization: It is fundamentally changing production processes and the distribution of content. All-IP is becoming the standard for TV and video, and fast fiber optic networks and 5G are enabling ever more flexible and mobile consumption of media content. These are being joined by new, intelligent recommendation functionalities based on artificial intelligence and analytics to address consumers in a targeted way.
Coexistence of traditional TV and on-demand content: Linear and on-demand content will be equally important and will coexist. VoD will soon become mainstream but at the same time, linear TV will remain significant. Especially live content such as sports and major events will preserve the high importance of traditional television.
Advertising targeted: TV and video advertising is adapting to new formats and relying more and more on the personalization of advertising content. The analysis of user data makes it possible to optimize ads and content, increase the benefit for potential customers, and ultimately to win them over as consumers. The extent to which this will happen, however, depends very much on the willingness of consumers to hand over their data.
Less regulation: Market regulation in the media industry will be more moderate than it is today. In particular in the area of online and mobile services, this will reduce the regulatory pressure on all market participants, especially on the traditional media companies.
Advertising and direct revenues will remain most relevant: Generating new revenue streams is rather difficult for the TV and video market. Innovative offers such as demand-based pricing for content will not prevail to a major extent. In addition, consumer data will be only partly used in monetization. There are only a few new data-driven revenue streams for broadcasters, as consumers show only a moderate willingness to pay with their data.
A partly consolidated market: The global media industry will be partly consolidated. Stakeholders will make use of strategic mergers, acquisitions, and alliances to strengthen their content quality and distribution capability. Moreover, numerous market players will shift along the value chain by expanding their businesses. Broadcasters will not only focus on their core competencies but also occupy some other positions in the value chain. Over-the-top services become more important in the future TV and video market, whereas tech players play a minor role. Looking at content production, both traditional studios and non-traditional providers will be part of it.